Re: ROTW (620 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: June 04, 2006 02:57PM
Miff-- tell you what. Why don't you take a random selection of 31 dirt stake 3yos, and lets see how many more starts they make this year compared to those 31 that ran neg 1 or better. My suggestion would be to use all the ones that ran on the Preakness and Belmont cards and in the Lone Star Derby that have not run that fast-- you keep track.
Yes, there are always individual circumstances (like the short rest off the huge effort for Barbaro, another factor that made this much more likely than usual). But those factors will wash out in a group study-- that's why we do things that way.
We hope to have abn interesting study at some point on a related issue as well.
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