Point Given Gal-Michelle wrote:
>
> I am an avid user of TG sheets, but I want to make sure that
> I am analyzing them correctly. May I ask a few questions
> just to make sure that I understand?
>
> - First when looking at the patterns of an older horse how
> much significance do you give to back class numbers. For
> example if a horse was running "3"s and "4"s but his last two
> or three races have been "6"s or "8"s, and another horse in
> the race consistently runs "6"s, how should I figure that?
> Do I go with the horse running 3's and 4's on top in my tris
> and in my WPS bets?
>
> - Secondly, what about for example three year olds. Would it
> make sense to look at the last three races and then try to
> get an average for each horse for their last three or four
> races and use that as a starting point? For example - War
> Emblem had a "1" then a "1" and then a "0" and Proud Citizen
> had a "2", "1", and "0". So 2 divided by 3 = avg for WE last
> three races = .67 and for Proud Citizen's numbers 3/3 = 1 for
> the avg for PC last three races. Is this a good way to do it
> or am I missing something here.
>
> - Third scenario - a horse runs a "5"
> then a "4" and then something like a "10" in his last race.
> What do I make of this?
>
> Thank you for any help that you can offer me as I am still
> learning how to effectively utilize the TG.

TG--1. The simple answer is that the horse with a 3 and a 4 back figures, is faster than the horse that runs 6s. However, it appears the latter horse is in better form and is more likely to run another 6 which may be good enough at the weights, notwithstanding ground loss or saved.

Ask yourself two questions--1. what probability does each horse have of running its best figure in its current form; and 2. if the horse runs that figure, what chance does it have to win? Multiply those two numerical answers and that's the winning probability. Are the respective odds fair? Underlay? Overlay?

2. I don't like to do that. Averages by their very nature smooth out extremes and in some cases the bounce or big new top may be the key factor in determining how a horse will race today. 3yos are growing and maturing, however, they improve at different rates. Over time, you should figure a drift to the left (lower figures), which an average may obscure.

3. The average of these three figures is 6-1/3, near to 6-1/4. Yet the horse is obviously faster than that with a 4 top and a 5 secondary top. What was the spacing to the 10? Did it come on a different track surface? Wet track? What age is the horse? How much has the horse improved from the last year? During the course of the year? Different equipment? In general the 10 is a bounce off the two efforts but as the above questions imply, the 10 may or may not be excusable. If it's not excusable it doesn't bode well for the horse. But has it done it in the past? If so, what happened as a result? This may be the best key to determining how important the 10 is.

Listen to the introductory seminar. Read some of the past Rotws. Of course, the Rotws relate to stakes animals that are more talented, receive more care and attention and get more rest between races but they still may help you to utilize TG sheets more profitably.



TGAB