miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said:
>
> "The only way to figure Bluegrass Cat running
> faster is to factor lost lengths on wide. The
> problem was wide was the place to be"
>
>
> Partially correct Chuck,
>
> BGC(5/6 path) will probably get the best TG fig if
> you watch the first turn closely where Gomez race
> rode the entire field very wide. Jazil was very
> close to the rail on the first turn and only one
> path wider than BGC on the last turn.
>
> Re the rail, I have no less than 5 horses who ran
> well towards the inside.Bailey commented after
> Bushfire "came again" along the inside that it
> meant the rail was OK.

Your comment upon Bushfire was not lost upon me. Clearly by the Belmont the jockeys wanted no part of the rail. Earlier some horses did not fair well there. Bushfire might win by 5 away from the rail. Theres others it appeared to impede but am not done reviewing the races. Certainly by the Belmont wide was the place to be so any factoring of greater speed on lost ground would appear to be very confusing.

If Jerry Bailey was a path expert he would have had Birdstone off the rail in the Lane's End. Countless others can't recall now. Jerry is alot of things including a pretty good pace handicapper, but he's not as sharp as the Bailey Groupies are giving him credit for. If he wants to remain the best, he needs to get back in the saddle.


> Also interesting that Violette said he was glad
> they were watering the track frequently to counter
> the strong winds.I would not judge any 3yr old by
> their performance at 12f, except Big Red.

That track was very fast but the rail was not the place to be. The quality that raced over that track were not able to take advantage of it. Mediocre stakes horses taking turns beating each other are kind of like 5,000 dollar claimers. You can get some odds, there won't be any Even money favorites, but predicting the next horse to win can get very dicey. This crop is no threat to their elders. At least none that ran in the Belmont. Winning figure? About a Tgraph 3. Pitiful. In the Commendable ballpark. Maybe worse. The Silver Lining? Lost to Commendable but recognized this Belmont for the same Chaos that Belmont was.

This was a Grade III