Re: Jerry Brown wins DMR Handicapping Contest (663 Views)
Posted by:
DeathBredon (IP Logged)
Date: October 04, 2006 08:06PM
"Having said that, this is the first time I've been looking forward to betting Keeneland. Because I KNEW I couldn't beat the old track."
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Just curious about your meaning, Jerry -- I've always understood parimuteul wagering to be about betting the crowd, not the surface, the jocks, the trainers, etc.
That being said, as a Lexington local, I must admit that I have rarley been able to beat the Keeneland crowd (actually the big bettors affecting the margins) on a whole-card basis. Indeed, I think favorites come home well above average here (often 40% or better), as "the word" tends to get out and spread quickly through the grape vine.
Ayhow, my Keeneland wisdom to sheet players is as follows:
(1) a lot of thoroughbred gentry would rather win here than anywhere else (save Saratoga possibly), thus connections are worth a few points of improvement, often more;
(2) winners off huge lay-offs and few or no works are not uncommon for reason number one above;
(3) if a horse is mysteriously bet way down, ingore the sheets, pass the race -- trust me on this one;
(4) for handicappers of only moderate ability (like myself), the short Keeneland meeting usually presents only a couple of shots for a solid score -- pick your spots very carefully.
Best of luck to all!