don't ask me the reasons why I believe it so, but i truly believe that Lava Man at this stage of his career is more "tractable" than Bernardini. I will say the latter is an A.p. Indy and those have for the most part developed into headstrong speed on the lead types. I don't think Bernardini is an exception and my read on him is that as he has matured hes become even more headstrong. I could be wrong, but I will bet that I'm not. In my estimation, Bernardini will have to overcome mature speed to win with his prefered style. I don't think he will see the same conditions he's been facing. Check out his career past performances. How tractable has he been?

Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> To my eye the issue with Lava Man will be the
> > pace. If the pace is too hot it will impact
> him as
> > well. If he runs in the B.C. Classic his
> success
> > will depend upon the early presssure but
> with
> > Bernardini in there as well as another
> legitimate
> > pace horse or two I'll probably be looking to
> beat
> > them both. If you're talking a head to head
> > matchup without necessarily winning, yes I
> favor
> > Lava Man. Bernardini's big 3YO figures don't
> > impress me very much.
> >
>
> I'm not at all worried about Nakatani getting
> caught in a suicidal pace scenario. He's ridden
> this horse with nothin' but confidence and he's a
> smart enough veteran, even in a 4 million dollar
> race, to remain calm and cool. I can see him
> taking back a length or two off a .45 or low .46
> second half in the classic. The intruidging part
> of the Bernardini/LM matchup is they're both
> tactical. It just so happens in their last three
> respective races they've taken it to the weaker
> competition and played the "catch me" role
>