Re: the frizette (603 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: October 17, 2006 04:17PM
Michael, funny you mention this, because I just did the day, and then looked to see what Beyer did. If you think that Beyer was low, you should have seen what it would have been if he didn't break it out. As it turned out, he did the same thing I did, breaking it out and ending up with the same relationship between the two 2yo stakes. I made them both slightly faster than he did.
I don't know what happened with the Frizette. There was an awful lot of wind, which may have had something to do with the slow time (either with gusts or by drying the track). There was also a very hot pace, which alternatively could mean the race simply collapsed. I broke it out because if I did so I could come up with a variant that had several fillies running very close to what they had been running, others running worse, and none running new tops. If you did the race at the same variant as the Champagne, everyone would go back at least 4-5 points.
In general, my rule is you don't break a race out just because doing it with the day is obviously wrong-- you have to know what the right correction is, with a high degree of probability. If I don't I leave a box, and if I'm not completely certain-- and I'm not with the Frizette-- I go back and review it. I just did my weekly reviews today, and changed two races-- one at Delaware, one at Turfway.
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