As far as handicapping on Poly track is concerned I'm sure that we'll find as time goes by the fundamental truths apply.

Still, have no doubt about it, Polytrack is an invasive species being introduced into a rather fragile ecosystem (and although here I might mean ecosystem as in economic system rather than ecological system, in truth the ecologocial system analogy hold up fine.)

Introduce an efficient snake onto an island sheltering a teeming colony of magnificient birds and in no time you'll be calling it Snake Island. In a little more time you'll be saying "There hasn't been a bird on Snake Island in thirty years."

So I suspect someday you might hear someone say, "They haven't run a race on dirt in America for thirty years." Perhaps, more of a reach, but not out of the question to me, is that someday you might be an old man reminicing about how they once ran races on grass in America.

Here's the deal with Polytrack: If statistics confirm that injuries are significantly reduced running on the rubber there is not a racing jurisdiction in the country that is going to be able to withstand the public pressure to install polytrack.

I know, I know. I hear all the gnashing of teeth and the cries of the traditonalists lamenting what is being stolen from them, but get used to this idea, if Poly succeeds in Keeneland and in California in ten years the Triple Crown will be the TriPoly crown. Hey, at one time they actually killed the bulls.

As to what happens to grass racing that's a murkier question to me. But there does seem to be some evidence that grass and poly are interchangeable, or depending how you look at it, redundant surfaces.

Certainly, more time has to pass, for me to be sure about this but Keeneland has provided a few clues that this may be so. Obviously horses aren't scratching out off the turf, remaining in the race, and winning on poly. Secondly, a lot of "Turf" horse are being entered to run on the main track, and running well. (I'll use yesterdays --10/20- fourth race as an example). And thirdly, and perhaps more subltely, and perhaps even more vexing to myself, is that horses being brought into races with what I consider "turf" workouts are running well on the Poly. By turf workouts I don't mean workouts on turf, but slow stamina building workouts.

Now if Poly and Turf are interchangeable surfaces why keep them both? Well, there are good reasons. Aesthetically grass is more pleasing, and the truth of the matter is that having multiple turf courses like Saratoga and Belmont does allow for carding races at different distances favoring diferent running styles, but still: it's extra maintenance costs, and somedays those turf course aren't quite as safe as the Poly, it's not like the old days when trainers used the turf to get horses ready for the dirt or vice versa, and people really don't care about this stuff as much as they used to, so let the grass grow and plant some flowers and be All Poly All The Time.

Which makes for another great Chapter in the "The Decline and Fall of the Racing Empire." Or: "How the Sport of Kings became the Banana Republic of Sports."

Now the really fascinating thing concering the whole Poly track situation is how it is going to effect the breeding industry. In truth, I never thought about it until JB mentioned in a post last week, but really, what were they thinking or were they thinking at all? And in fact, I can't even pretned to have any answers to this question. Maybe the breeding industry has been looking at this from a long term perspective for a long time, and anticipated at some point they were going to have to revamp their product for artificial surfaces, but on the other hand, it seems a few of them might just now be waking up with a sour mash bad taste in their mouths, thinking,"Dam, I thought New Track was going to go the way of New Coke. What's the point of having all these dirt lines if there's no dirt races. I haven't felt this stupid since I working for the NYRA and gave away the off-track action to the OTBs."

So, goes the law of unintended consequences, so goes the law of invasive species. I think we might be in for an interesting time in Racing watching everybody scrambling to stay ahead of the curve. For certainly big bucks have big antlers with which to protect their territory.

But as for myself what can I do? I can only bet the races they card for me and trust that when handicapping Poly the fundamental truths continue to apply. Because there certainly are going to be many more Poly carded races--unless that study funded soon to be funded by the breeding industry definitely proves that Poly is "potentially" much too toxic for widespread use joltingly brakes the now clear sailing momentum of sythetic surfaces--as time goes by.