based on thoro-graph thoro-patterns:

bernardini - fast and ready to pair or run a new top.
brother derek - pretty fast, should be able to run his race. not looking for a new top though.
david junior - pretty fast, but going from turf to dirt. ? .
flower alley - past figures, but like most of the older horses, is more likely to go back than forward, and he hasn't run very fast in '06.
george washington - turf to dirt?
giacomo - not a bad pattern, pair or back likely though. foresee a :27 last quarter though? i don't.
invasor - sample size here is a bit small, and you also have the layoff, which confuses things further, but a pair is possible. trainer does fine with layoffs.
lava man - 40% off, 35% X !!! doesn't look good, and the sample size is 1,496 races. sorry.
lawyer ron - last was decent, and t-p says a pair is very possible. also gets weight. oh yeah - first pletcher (& possibly first JR).
perfect drift - love the switch to gomez, and love the pace setup, but t-p same as LM's - small backwards move at best.
premium tap - little chance of a new top. pair or backwards move likely. i will toss the desormeaux disaster, but negative '1' look like best hope.
suave - little chance of a new top. pair or backwards likely.
sun king - little chance of a new top. pair looks possible though, which pattern wise, makes him more attractive than the other older horses.
super frolic - little chance of a new top. pair within reach, backwards likely.

conclusion - the patterns on the tough older horses don't look so tough. while you should never expect big new tops out of older horses, some of these patterns look downright ugly. i think i'm with the 3 and 3.5 year olds.




Edited 11 time(s). Last edit at 10/26/2006 05:59PM by Michael D..