Without revealing valuable proprietary information to any infidels who might be
stringing along, the "Devil" makes 7 of these fast enough to win this heat.


Balletto: Now eligible for NW of a race in last 2 years. Her two top #s were
earned in races where she exhibited a disappointing (to me at least) case of
camera shyness, dropping heartbreaking decisions to Spun Sugar in the Go For
Wand and Fleet Indian in the Beldame. Seems absolutely dependent on a fast
contentious pace.

Fleet Indian: Likely to be off at odds of 7/5 with Santos,she has captured 8
straight races. To give an indication of the depth of her competition in these
races,she has been off at odds of less than even money in 7 of these heats.
After rating in the 1 turn Beldame, I believe she will return to pace pressing or
pace setting tactics in this 2 turn event (she is 7 for 8 in 2 turn races). I
will be leaving her out of multiple race wagers, even though she is arguably the
fastest filly or mare in the race.

Happy Ticket: Began her career like the second coming of Hallowed Dreams,reeling
off 8 straight wins against Louisiana Breds to begin her career. A beaten
favorite in 3 of her last 4 races, she was badly outrun in last years BC Distaff;
history repeats itself.

Pine Island: Young,plenty of upside. Has improved, visually and by the numbers,
in each start. Has won turf, off track, fast tracks at Belmont and Saratoga. Hard
to ignore Shug on racings biggest day: He has won 9 BC races, including 3 BC
Distaffs and 7 races for the Phipps family. Like Balletto, dependent on a hot
pace. Like Fleet Indian, she has been a short priced favorite recently. Further
improvement possible but not assured, she would be my pick to upset, but need to
get 6/1 or above.

Pool Land: Has the tactical speed to be on or near the pace, and I would think
she might be oportunistic and go for the gusto right out of the gate. Like Pine
Island, she takes a big step up in company. 4 for 5 in 2 turn heats, but settled
for 3rd in her only race at 9f, beaten by Spun Sugar and Balletto. Has to answer
the question in the last furlong IMO.

Round Pond: Owner Rick Porter pressed the issue with his fragile colt Rockport
Harbor, then did the right thing when the colt came unglued-- he fired the
trainer (sorry I couldn't resist). 6 for 10 lifetime looks good, but note that
5 of those wins came at Oaklawn. Under the whip at the 3/8ths pole in the
Beldame,she had little left to offer thereafter.

Spun Sugar: 4 for 4 in 2 turn races. To me, the most appealing of the Pletcher
contingent. Has won at 5 different venues, has good breeding for 9f, has good
running style. What the OTB alta kokers used to call a "z pattern" horse, she is
sitting on a good one. Luzzi rides?

The bet: Pine Island and Spun Sugar on multiple race tickets. Given their
running styles, only the far outside posts would hurt their chances. If both
were at odds over 6/1, might favor Pine Island in that Castellano has had more
success in big races than Mike Luzzi,and Shug has been known for his great work
with fillies and mares in big spots.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/31/2006 08:34PM by richiebee.