Blow by Blow (690 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: November 05, 2006 11:28AM
Had a slightly down day, as usual for me with BC (I think I've done well twice...) but at least I didn't spend all week on it...
Juvenile fillies - Favorite wins easy. Spent plenty. I am shocked when I see what the tri plays. Next.
Juvenile - I would bet Jerry had this super. I upgrade CP West and dowgrade Great Hunter so I have to settle for the exacta (the first of a few last minute decisions that don't go my way). I also decide to hold off on Pick 3s until the next race...
F&M Turf - Ouija Board wins easy...but at least I'm live in the P3.
Sprint - Thor's Echo gets me back to even for the day. Of course I do not have the megabombs underneath, but now my P3 looks nice and I have five horses in the Mile...
Mile - Miesque's Approval is NOT one of my five horses. JB/TG - "live longshot." I have NO LUCK with pick threes! Now it's whiskey time.
Distaff - Pletchers don't show up, big mess. Golden rail?
Turf - I'm thinking a lot of these horses are going to try and run the same race, pace-wise, and since everyone is within a point or two it seems worth a swing against the shorties. I decide to downgrade Cacique and I really get into Rush Bay at 35-1. I write down to use Better Talk Now in exactas with Rush Bay (big price!) and Red Rocks, as it looks like the closers have a shot. I throw in TH Approval, and...at the last minute...throw out Better Talk Now and Go Deputy, leaving Rush Bay and Red Rocks with TH. I throw English Channel into the tris. After making a few VERY GOOD decisions and one key bad one (not going all the way with the pace scenario and leaving out BTNow) I get nothing (I bet Rush Bay to win and not Red Rocks). I am however, live in the double with my two longshots, Premium Tap and Lawyer Ron. Make it a double.
Classic - I feel pretty sure that Bernardini will not win...and I like Premium Tap and Lawyer Ron. I decide Invasor cannot win this race off the layoff and leave him out, despite a fair price on a horse that as run as fast as Horse o' Century Bernardini. Another nice tri payoff considering it includes the two fastest horses in the race.
It's hard to adjust my thinking for the fact that favorites key big paydays on this particular day... Otherwise it was exciting and I least I had a run...
I think TG held up well. The horses that won the juvies had patterns to improve. The Sprint and Classic winners had the fastest or equal to the fastest figs (Thor's Echo and Invasor both had run minus 3's I believe...making them as fast as their shorter priced counterparts...). You could argue that Thor's Echo and Invasor may not have had locked-in patterns or anything coming in, but they obviously had the raw ability to win as reflected in their TG-rated performances...
HP
Blow by Blow (690 Views) |
HP |
11/05/2006 11:28AM |
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.