Marcus and NCT:

Appreciate the kind words. I am not big on New Years Resolutions, but 07 will be
a good year for me if I get an opportunity to get at least one on course
golf "lesson" from my Tar Heeled Jesuit friend and one chance to read some
patterns on that pier in Red Hook with my pal Marcus.

NCT, I think your good natured implication is that I am so wrapped up in
Racing's problems and politics that I do not spend any time handicapping or
actually following Racing. The truth is that due to my current work schedule I
only have the opportunity to play on Friday and Saturday. On these days I limit
myself to Fair Grounds and Aqueduct.

The problems/challenges facing Racing, especially in New York, are perplexing.
Racing in NY has been insulated from NY politics for quite a while due to NYRA's
long term franchise. I think one man who should have more input (he certainly has
a broad enough range of experience) is spending too much time trying to hit the
Pick 6.

NCT-- the voice of NY racing is the Post's Ed Fountaine. Unfortunately, the Post
is so concerned with covering the "pop tarts" (Britney Spears and Jessica
Simpson) and the "celebutard" (Paris Hilton) that much of what Fountaine writes
is never published. Part of racing's image problem in NY is that Racing is no
longer covered by the press day to day as if it were a Major League sport.

OK Marcus about that 8th tomorrow at AQ: Lets look at the trainer profile--
here are 4 animals who are listed as exceeding their previous top by at least 1
point in their last race: I'm Not Guilty (Buddy Carlesimo) (73% of runners in
this category next race "Off" or "X"); KingoftheNight (R. Dutrow)(cant see from
the sheet how this stat applies to this particular animal...anyone?); Dancing
Forever (Shug)(about 50% of his runners in this category followed with "Top"
or "Pair") and Broadway Producer (John Terranova) (also about 50% followed
with "Top" or "Pair"). And the overall Thoro Patterns show that the 3 3YOs above
mentioned all are approx 50/50 to "Top" or "Pair".

More traditional analysis: I'm Not Guilty and Barcola cut out a hot pace, and
Dancing Forever (goes from low % J Espinoza to top rider Coa) could have the
most energy in the lane. No value there, however, because he will be
5/2 - 3/1 and his lone career win came on the grass.

9th Race: Awful NYB 35K MCl. The 2nd through 6th place finishers from a similar
race on November 17 all return. This race is so bad that even John Candlin,
statistically NYRA's most inept trainer, has a chance with his runner who faces
claimers for the first time.

My selection in race 9: Fatherless Lass. The fields only 4YO, she has 3 career
races (all turf sprints at Colonial) and shows 1 slow breeze in the last 15
weeks. Low percentage trainer DeStasio and a 7 pound bug I've never heard of.
At odds well over 20/1, I'll try the first time v NY Bred angle and consider
myself a big winner if she is anywhere near the Home Depot when the rest of the
field is at the 1/8th pole.

Intrepid Update. She's out of the mud and in dockyard hands over in Bayonne. When
the old tub-- the Navy's equivalent to Forego and Kelso-- passed Ground Zero, a
huge American flag was unfurled. Gotta go now.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/06/2006 12:01AM by richiebee.