Michael,

My thoughts on Island Guide were that the horse was ouchy (significant bounce off of the last 7 with time and then an even bigger gap before todays race) and thus very unlikely to run back to the 7s. Take away the 7s and he had a bunch of 11s and 13s with one 9. There were several other horses with a good chance to run a 10 or better and given my negative read on his line figured him as third most likely to win. I was right about Island Guide but wrong about the winner.