Re: Lanes End Thoughts-For You Reppo (620 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: March 24, 2007 08:46AM
For You Reppo looks like a decent horse, but I think he is going to get the worst of it trip-wise plus the race is coming at a better time for some of the others in here. It wouldn't surprise me to see him run a decent buried effort here and then surprise in some races latter in the season. I would need better than 10-1 to get eager about him.
To me, the LanesEnd is a tough race. You cannot bet on or against Hard Spun which right off the bat gives the race a toughness from the betting perspective. I, personally, really like horses like Forefathers. The problem is that the 7-2 morning line is too short for my taste. So right off the bat, the favorite and the second choice could easily be there, but the prices are too low to take. After that, I do not like the two TAP horses so much, so if they take a lot of money, there may be an angle there. There are also a bunch of longer horses who could easily get up for a piece (I agree with a lot of what people have said about Sports Town). In the end, I hope I have the strength to skip this race for betting purposes and just enjoy the show.
One interesting note here are the Paraneck horses.
Here is what I see in Pink Viper -- (1) he cost more than Helios (they were both 130 large but Viper was bought as a weanling and Helios was bought a year later), (2) he is a half to Flashy Bull who was a very good 3 yo last year (the owner is lucky he bought Pink Viper as a weanling before the world knew how good Flashy Bull was), (3) he ships well -- see the jump shipping to Delaware and going two turns for the first time, (4) he has already won a stakes going two turns, (5) he already has graded money earnings.
Helios has never run nearly as fast as Pink Viper and is still eligible for an N1X. Really, the only thing Helios has going for him is that he has never bounced and he is first time lasix. He may end up turning into a decent horse, but why throw him to the wolves now? Is he under Derby consideration and Pink Viper is not? Makes no sense. Pink Viper is clearly the better of the two and likely to run a better race than Helios, yet Helios goes for the graded money and Pink Viper goes in the Rushaway. Also, Pink Viper has to give weight away in the Rushaway and could have gotten even weights in the LanesEnd. Oh well.
Also, interesting jockey thoughts too. Arroyo has won on both colts yet stays in NY to ride a filly (favorite in the supporting feature for the same connections). Maybe there are still some bad memories from him riding in these races at this track (I know I have the memories). Channing Hill. At the same time, Johnny V does not have a mount in the Rushaway? What is going on between Pletcher and Velasquez? Velasquez gets taken off Panty Raid in the Bourbonnette in favor of Prado? And Prado gets Meritocracy over Johnny V? Are changes afoot? Maybe Johnny V will be a last minute no show?