"do all horses that run on the pace run "better" than their figure, and all who lay back run "worse"?"

Actually, I think the answer to that is almost a "yes".

Typically front runners work harder to dispose of each other early and then repulse the mid and late race bids of stalkers and deeper closers. That is why when one gets loose in a soft pace they often run a huge figure relative to their typical performance.

The problem with closers like Sightseeing is that it's easy to lay back, make a late run, and pick up a minor piece when most of the horses that were actually trying to win have exhausted themselves with either early or middle moves to get into and stay in contention. It's a lot more difficult to actually win with that trip unless the whole race collapses. IMO, if he actually tried to win by getting involved earlier so he was in an excellent postion (like AGS), he would have had to use himself harder and his inferiority to No Biz at this stage would have been exposed.



Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 04/14/2007 01:54PM by fkach.