Re: Street Sense BC Question? (512 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: April 19, 2007 10:04AM
I believe that favorable biases often contribute to figures that are unlikely to be duplicated in the future "all else being equal".
In the case of Street Sense, there are several things to consider about that figure.
IMO, his BC Juvenile figure was earned under ideal conditions. Not only was he on what appeared to be the most favorable rail path, he also benefitted from a lively pace in front of him while he sat inside behind horses. Most of his reputation is based on that one race. People are betting him on the assumption that he can duplicate or exceed it as a 3YO. To me, that kind of thing is typically a huge betting negative.
On the flip side, his first two races as a 3YO have been OK (with the BG being such a boat race it's hard to decipher). So IMO, just because his reputation as a 2YO was probably inflated, that does not mean he can't win based on what he's shown to date. He might get back to that figure or better on development but not on a pair if you know what I mean (the figures will pair but the performances will not be equal)
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/19/2007 10:08AM by fkach.