The Study was good, but like all tried and true rules on how to handicap the Derby their usefulness can become diminished as exceptions occur.

Over the years we have had to deal with Dosage, Dual Qualifiers, Experimental Free Weights, Geldings, No Races at Two and other myths that actually provided people some winners or at the very least some toss-outs. Me included.

The Negative number angle is a good one. However there has been considerable discussion here over the last week that Street Sense while receiving a Negative 2 on BC Day may have been the beneficiary of a rail bias. So the question becomes when is a Negative 2 not really a Negative 2, doesn't it.

Circular Quay by all accounts received a very low number in the La. Derby (I have not downloaded the Special, most likely will tonight). So the question becomes how many in the Study subsequent to their large effort took an extended eight week vacation. The answer is probably none.

Assuming Curlin went Negative in the Ark Derby he is now bucking a couple of trends. The Neg number, three weeks rest and no two year old foundation. So the question becomes is Curlin talented enough and fast enough to win the Ky Derby? The answer is yes.

When assessing the chances of the above three a handicapper should hope to receive a discount in pari-mutual odds for the exceptions he is being asked to overlook. The answer here is he will not.

Other than Circular Quay the other two will be fairly well bet. So is Circular Quay the one to bet. The answer is yes.

As long as you are comfortable wagering on a horse who must thread his way thru a twenty horse field, lose as little ground as possible, not get checked, in a race that may or may not have any pace, at odds of around 10-1.