imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Few things to consider if you want to adjust your
> line.
>
> 1) people tend to bet 2 dollars to win on every
> longshot....so, those 50-1 shots may be 38-1 or
> thereabouts. I'd lower the extreme bombs just a
> little bit and raise the shorter prices a litlle
> bit.
>
> 2)Dominican may be lower due to the presense of
> Rafael Bejarano, a KY based rider. I remember
> being fascinated when Pat Day was always overbet
> in the Derby and i thought to myself that because
> of the worldwide betting pools, there would be no
> pat day bias, but there was. Maybe a little love
> for the locals.
>
> 3) Julien Leparoux. Not sure if he has a mount,
> but if he gets one, he'll be overbet (just a
> little bit) too.
>
> 4) Tiago. He'll get lots of press being Giacomo's
> brother...so, he could be a tick or 2 under your
> 25-1 quoted price.
>
> Overall i think you did a very good job. Post
> positions will change things, but i don't see
> anything out of whack.
>
> Well done.


im, substitute Gomez, Prado, or Velazquez for Raf on a mount in the race this year, and I think the odds go lower. not sure he's that big a factor on the board just yet, at least not when the big guys show up. the odds on Dominican will be lower than 25-1 tho, mainly because he just won the Blue Grass. even Sinister Minister, who had less than a 0% chance of winning the Derby, took money after winning the Blue Grass over a surface that rendered the race inconsequential. funny how the Blue Grass went from meaning nothing because the surface was so speed favoring, to meaning nothing because the surface resembles turf not dirt, all in a single year.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/24/2007 11:11PM by Michael D..