I'm sure of that, but the fact is the Pletcher's are really not regarded as major players and thats why many are hazarding that they may fill out the Trifecta. Its odds and trainer betting related. Pletcher will get off the schnide one year and this may be the year, but he is goose-egg for 14 (Ben Jones he aint) and the days of mojo training won't last forever, so he better get down to it. Theres some talented horses in this race. If they fire TAP is gonna be lucky to pick up a check.

Velasquez's move off AGS is very telling in my opinion. In the Wood AGS had the opportunity to take that race, but AGS was running at 9 marks for the first time and ran wide enough to count 10. After the race Pletcher said "He was there it was disappointing" and then Velasquez jumps ship. I just think thats very telling. If I do throw AGS in it will only be for third and fourth and I'll probably leave him out of third.

Its likely Velasquez had the choice of Scat and opted for Circular Quay. Skipping the Wood for the extra rest is very interesting. My guess is TGraph LOVES that play. I think its chicken @#$%& and if Velasquez beats me with that I'll just have to live with it. I'll include Quay no better than third.

The oddest horse out and maybe hardest horse to judge is Scat, but Scat has been slow and a grinder and thats not how the Derby is generally won. He may grind well, but better finishing horses are going to be on his flank with a quarter to go. I could see him getting a bigger piece if he gets the Bluegrass Cat preparation and some of the others get compromised. Still, can't see him any better than third without divine intervention and probably won't bet him that high. Still undetermined. This is all assumming that Prado had 1st call and with Velasquez's import to the stable tend to think Scat was his if Johnnie asked. Hell he'd ridden him for every race until the Florida Derby.

The play in this Derby is beat Pletcher, but the Pletcher horse which I believe has the best chance is not even being talked about. The ones that are will have to have the very best medicine to be effective. But then again, I didn't like Bluegrass Cat a bit either, so maybe the Pletcher favs will run 1-2-3 at 10=1, 15..and 20-1. If you think hes a real trainer, you will get good odds. A trainer bettor can dream can't he?....lol


miff Wrote:
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> You can bet your life there will be no 9-5 shots
> in this derby.The favorite may be in the 4-1, 9/2
> range.
>
> Mike