[size=large]Factoring last minute scratches the field is set. The Post Positions are drawn.

Post Position is an important factor in the Derby. It won't necessarily help a horse, but it can lessen a horse's chances. In regard to the latter its not unreasonable to identify the horses that now have to be downgraded:

Curlin - Post 2, They definitely don't want to speed pop him in my opinion and it can get pretty tight down in there. Any 1st turn crowding and his derby win chances could be compromised.

Scat Daddy - Post 14, this horse has almost always had a good post. The one time he didn't he was life and death to get up on a wide trip. Here its not hard to foresee too much left to do when the gut check meter reads about empty.

Stormello - Post 17, The connections talked about a rating derby. They may still rate him, but a speed horse that has shown late race fades is not advantaged by breaking so far outside. They may decide to send now, but its plausible it would be a big order to get the lead from that hole and if he does at what cost?

Any Given Saturday - Post 18, The high head runner just guaranteed an off the pace trip coming off of a race where he spit the bit. Very tall order. Nearly certain to finish up the track with horses passing him late.

Dominican - Post 19, This is not a pure closer and the traffic just got very significant. Odds reassessment 175-1.

Great Hunter - Post 20, he can tuck in and track, but he hasn't shown the explosive move thats probably going to be needed to make up the ground he now figures to lose.

Time to analyze the race, but first another look at some prep replays.

Dontchaluvit!

CtC[/size]