[size=large]Having read his books and considered his opinion, tonight the reality of Andrew Beyer settled in upon me. Anyone that has followed this game for any number of years has to have observed Andy flailing away with the Derby. Andy reinvented Speed Figures in a methodical attempt to bring consistency to the game and logic to his wagers. Without being able to recall the precise Year and Comment, Andy has very much been a student of statistics, or in other words, a follower of Derby trends in placing his wagers. With all of his logic, statistics and trends, Andrew Beyer is Nada at Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May.

Today the trend that is important to him is the 2YO race foundation. Last year it very well may have been no more than 4 weeks layoff and I believe that was one of his contentions. Thereafter, he predicted a Barbaro Triple Crown. Three years ago, when the gelded Funny Cide won the Derby I'm nearly certain he felt a Gelding was not a statistical edge wager. Two years ago he selected Bellamy Road because that one was a statistical beast upon his last Beyer Number.

In conclusion, Andy's belief system can be condensed to this: "There are ways of shortcutting the full evaluation process in selecting a winner" There are shortcuts to rule out certain variables to increase ones methodical focus upon those that "can" win. His whole life has been devoted to reducing a horse to an equation and he's not going to change now.

Andy Beyer says that Curlin cannot win and will finish worse than 10th because he never raced as a 2YO. If Curlin gets pinned in the clubhouse turn and finishes 8th Andy will likely feel empowered by the mathematics in the continuing statistical trend. Maybe Curlin will not win, but trends are broken by the right horse in the right place at the right time. Such was the case of Barbaro last year and Lammatara in the English Derby some years back. (A Derby won upon only one other race is my recollection.) Both horses broke the mold and reset the trends. Such events are anathema to methodical statisticians whose minds need to arrange the data and require structure and order in attempts to limit what they perceive as the chaos.

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Will talk about the race next[/size]