The Archives on Thorograph if studied are as potentially valuable as anything you can get for free.

Start with;
Sunny's Halo 11 2-year old starts 2 3-year old starts
Swale 7/4
Spend a Buck 8/3
Alysheba 7/3
Winning Colors 2/4 a mismanaged freak Still won Derby
Sunday Silence 3/3
Unbridled 5/4
Srike the Gold 3/3
Lil E Tee 4/4
Sea Hero 7/3
Go For Gin 5/4
Thunder Gulch 6/3
Grindstone 2/3 note his 2 yr-old races in early summer had training bottom
Silver Charm 3/3
Real Quiet 9/3
Charismatic 7/7
Fu Peg 1/4 note not asked to bust it 1st time out
Monarchos 2/4
Funny Cide 3/3
Smarty Jones 2/4 regular spacing (3-4 wk) from December on
Giacomo 4/3

Not one of the above asked to bust it out 1st/2nd time at Saratoga/CD/SA/Holly
and they either had a very solid 2-yr old bottom or where consistently starting as 3-yr olds.

Or asked to play catch up like Curlin.


Every one of these horses moved forward on a logical progression with incremental moves forward with occasional slight set back. They were not asked to bust it early.

Afleet Alex is in my opinion the 1st example of a horse asked to bust it early and survived to do great things (most do not), but he pitched at the 1/16th pole in the Derby.

Pletcher asks his horses to bust as 2-yr olds.
Check all his Derby horse patterns (there in the archives). 2-2-2-2-2- starting to figure it out as Any Given Saturday and Sam P have a better pattern.

The point to all this is Carl Nafzger has had a handful of good 2-year olds in the last 17 years. They all won the Derby or Travers. Pletcher has had 50+
$ million 2-year olds in the last 10 years. Plus xxx $500K etc.

Not a one won. And by shear numbers he may win this year and I look foolish. But the odds are against it.

Look at Asmussen and O'Neill's (not just Derby starters, but the crop of 2007 candidates) Great Hunter is an example of a horse been given his space to both earn money as a 2-yr old and grow.

You don't take horses to the Derby wearing Bar shoes.

Street Sense
Great Hunter
1/5 Pletcher