Marc:

I think horses win DESPITE Santos, not because of him. And you're right. Even when he wins it's ugly to watch.

Even if everything you say about Volponi is true, and I have no reason to doubt you, Santos had every opportunity to save ground behind Grammarian on T1 & T2. No reason to push him outside if he doesn't really want the lead. Then, leaving the final turn, rather than seizing command and hoping that Volponi lasts the final 3/16, he gets cute and tries to play cat and mouse with the closers, only going to an all out drive when he senses Denon coming.