[size=large]Commentary Upon the Derby Entries:

1. Sedgefield – Better figures on Poly than Turf. If he handles Churchill (and he is working well over it) think he could be a exotics factor. In the Lane’s end he broke from far outside and bumped but ran a game second to Hard Spun. If you’re factoring the latter you might want to think about factoring the former.

2. Curlin – Undefeated, Untied, Unscored Upon. No horse he’s faced of yet has been remotely in his class and that’s an interesting result.

3. I’m guessing Zanjero is gonna be a very useful horse down the line, but he did lose his Jockey. I’m not overly fond of Cherokee Run as a distance sire, though he did finish second in the Preakness.

4. Storm in May – King of the Roxy beat him by more than Curlin.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy – Another big odds horse that could be there running at the end when much lower priced horses are in full retreat the other way.

6. Cowtown Cat – Still think this horse will provide TAP with his best finish.

7. Street Sense – Has handled most of these with the exceptions of Hard Spun and Curlin

8. Hard Spun – Has not faced Curlin nor Street Sense and probably has the speed to attempt a “Spend a Buck” if the connections are so inclined. Hot work the other day has many concerned. Some feel he pulled himself up. Well maybe he did, but in the Lanes End Pino had to keep after him once he hit the lead without challenge. He may be looking for a horse to look in the eye and taunt. Could be any kind.

9. Liquidity – Has some speed but they take the blinkers off for the Derby. Probably for the best if that foretells backing off the pace some, because running on the pace this horse has run well but shown possible lack of late race energy.

10. Teuflesberg – With Stormello opting for the 17 hole and Liquidity taking the shades off, tend to think he will get the lead. He will have to break clean to do it. But once on the lead, if he gets the least bit brave, the figure makers may have to reevaluate the pace of the Bluegrass, especially if its 47 and 1:11:4

11. Bwana Bull – Well… Giacomo did it.

12. Nobiz like showbiz – Really like his trainer. He hasn’t moved forward and they put blinkers on and cotton in his ears. Suppose he could crack the Trifecta, but beating Any Given Saturday and Sightseeing is not adding up to Derby winner. If he does win, I’ll be happy for his connections.

13. Sam P. – He got a little close to the pace last so they ended the blinder experiment. Doesn’t look like it was that much difference. Actually like this one more than TAP’s Big-3 too.

14. Scat Daddy – Probable off odds in the 9-1 range. Gonna get the worst post of his life against the best horses he’s ever faced. The one trip over Churchill doesn’t add positive evidence. No work over the track that I’m aware of. Maybe the hooves are too brittle to train over genuine Kentucky hard ground. He is training in bar shoes.

15. Tiago – Like him better than his half brother. Theres some good horses in here, but the pace may not be as severe as some think and if so his chances would probably have to be downgraded.

16. Circular Quay – Whats really interesting about this horse is that he has most certainly not closed as fast as most folks want to give him credit for. His last race was best, which makes one wonder about the time off and the race skipped. Certainly a one timer coming off his best race upon an extended layoff.

17. Stormello – Looks like they intend to return to their Norfolk in an attempt to rate just off the pace.

18. Any Given Saturday – This horse just looks like he got used up is all. He spit the bit in the Wood and that was his first try at 9 poles. This post makes it all the harder to make better at 10 poles.

19. Dominican – The “Testicle Angle” is sure being bandied about by some. I can’t recall a big name horse suddenly becoming a Champion because he was cut cruelly. The post doesn’t help. His closing kick is not bad but its not exceptional either.

20. Great Hunter – No reason to get enthused from here.[/size]