I've read rave opinions of Liquidity too. However, I can't get away from the fact that every single one of his races, excluding his maiden 6 furlong score is a fade and that today he must run the farthest distance of his life.

I do like his breeding, but Rahy was a miler is my recollection and if not, this horse is showing a lack of late energy regardless.

elkurzhal Wrote:
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> 1 Sedgefield ~ Live at a long price. Love the
> conditioning race over the turf last time out. He
> ran a very professional and athletic race to break
> his maiden from the one hole. Of course he did it
> against bums, but he has moved forward, and never
> really looked comfortable on the turf. His second
> place finish to Hard Spun was a huge race, getting
> a fig as good as Nobiz’s top. If he runs as well
> on Dirt as he has on poly they will need to
> replace the lights on the tote board after the
> race.
> 2 Curlin ~ I think a lot of people are over
> thinking this horse. He's the only one who has
> strung together really good races. It doesn't
> look like they have gotten to the bottom of him
> yet either. He's the most likely winner and I
> think in June we are going to be comparing him to
> some big names from 20-30 years ago.
> 3 Zanjero ~ Ran some solid numbers last year, and
> improved this year. Still at his best a bit slow,
> and will have trouble finding a clear path coming
> from pretty far back.
> 4 Storm in May ~ Too slow, not a 10f pedigree,
> don't see him making the improvement needed to be
> competitive.
> 5 Imawildandcrazyguy ~ He ran a pretty big number
> as a two year old, and he's improved a little. A
> new top is somewhat possible and it could be
> enough to get a check. Interesting longshot at a
> big price.
> 6 Cowtown Cat ~ Ran a solid number last time out,
> but it was a pretty big jump up. I think that was
> his derby and he'll bounce off it.
> 7 Street Sense ~ I'm not sure that he's gotten
> enough out of the Tampa race and the slow paced
> Blue Grass to be at his best. On talent,
> connections and love of the track I'll play him
> underneath.
> 8 Hard Spun ~ He’s done everything right so far,
> including getting out of Arkansas when Curlin
> showed up. I’m not sure if he’s ready to run the
> race of his life off a six week layoff and goofy
> training pattern. Including, but not on top
> 9 Liquidity ~ One of the most talented horses in
> the field, but has turned into a head case the
> past couple races. Owner and trainer seem to be
> almost unable to contain themselves when they talk
> about him. I think they have figured him out and
> he’s going to run the race of his life. Reports
> from Haskins in Kentucky say he’s looking at
> training very impressively.
> 10 Teuflesberg ~ Nice horse, but he looked spent
> after 9f in the Blue Grass. He’s a little light
> on the numbers and I can’t see him running a new
> top trying to hold off some of the quality horses
> that will be making runs at him early and often.
> 11 Bwana Bull ~ I can’t blame them for taking a
> shot, but he’s really too slow to be competitive.
> 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz ~ The value of the race is
> playing him off the board. He ran some bang up
> races as a two year old, and in three starts this
> year has yet to improve. He also is just as green
> as he was then, and seems to be even less
> cooperative with his rider during the race.
> He’ll probably win some nice races down the road,
> but the pattern suggests his is likely to go south
> soon.
> 13 Sam P. ~ Didn’t really run that fast as a two
> year old and has only developed a little and would
> need a big top to even get close.
> 14 Scat Daddy ~ Has done everything right so and
> could have a better form line coming in. Ran a
> huge number in the champagne as a two year old,
> and quickly got back to that number this year
> before running a small top last time. He has the
> potential on pedigree to improve another 1-1.5
> points and even a pair up will put him in the
> picture at the end.
> 15 Tiago ~ Ran a huge come from behind race in the
> Santa Anita Derby. It was a couple point top and
> leaves him slower than too many of these.
> 16 Circular Quay ~ Ran a huge -1 in the Louisiana
> Derby, and the 8 weeks off probably gives him a
> better chance of running back to it. As good as
> it was it wasn’t a huge move up based on his 2yo
> numbers. He will have a hard time working out a
> trip from the 16 hole and he’s the size of a large
> dog, and getting bounced around would really
> compromise him. I’ll play him on top because of
> the figs, rest, and solid connections.
> 17 Stormello ~ Ran some solid races against Scat
> Daddy, but the connections and the horse seem to
> be on different pages on his running style.
> Can’t see him getting a decent trip and running a
> new top and he’d need both to have a shot.
> 18 Any Given Saturday ~ Ran a fast 2yo race, and
> was able to run a new top in his second race this
> year (good sign). The last race was a small
> backward move, and looked like a conditioning
> race. I expect a big run from him, but the post
> position will keep him off the top of my tickets.
> 19 Dominican ~ I’m not getting all the love for
> this guy. He won the Blue Grass in probably the
> paced derby prep race ever. He’s got a quick
> turn of foot, but his pedigree makes me think it
> will be a little duller going 10f. Three races in
> a 6 week span, and a poor post won’t help.
> 20 Great Hunter ~ I was a huge fan of his dad and
> wish I could back him here, but his only decent
> fig came on the quirky Breeders Cup day. Draw a
> line though that and he’s one of the slowest
> horses in the race. Even the owner likes his
> other horse (Liquidity) better.
>
> Short version….
> Nobiz off the board
> Curlin IS a monster
> Scat Daddy 2nd most likely winner
> Sedge & Liquidity live at big prices
> CQ scary talent, on top defensively
> SS, AGS, HS filling out the tri
> Zanjero & Imawildandcrazyguy possible savers with
> Curlin on top.
>
> I’ll play a one spread ticket (1,2,9,14,16/
> +7,8,18/same), and a series of higher $ tickets
> keying Curlin with 1,9,14.
>
> Good luck everyone!