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Rag vs. Sheets Sunday (1730 Views)
Posted by: The Kid (IP Logged)
Date: August 13, 2002 10:04PM

Ragozin posted their Sunday numbers, so I went to the Red Board Room on Monday to compare. My two cents.

Race 1. Won by no-secret first time starter. Both Rags and T-Graph had comparable patters for runner up. A push.

Race 2. Winner was slightly faster on Rags (11 top to 11.5 TG, not accounting for TG's sheets running abt. 2 points faster.) Patterns seemed debatable; an argument could be made for a forward move on both sheets.

Rags: 12.5, 11, 14.75 last 3 races
T-Graph: 11.5, 11.5 15.25)

Race 2's second place horse @ 16/1 was faster on TG and had run a new top last, but TG had the 3rd place horse posting better numbers than the winner, while Rags had him running slower than the winner.

As for the 6/5 fave, who ran 4th, TG had the horse running faster than the winner, while Rags had him at roughly the same number. Looked to bounce on both sheets.

Winner? Rags.

RACE 3. 2-yr old maidens.

RACE 4. Difficult. Winner had generally backward moving line on both sheets, she looked marginally better off Rags linewise (13.75, 25 non-effort, 13, 12) vs. TG (12.5, 16.25, 9, 7.5), but TG had her back races looking more competitive. 7/5 2nd place horse figured to bounce off of both, but had a strong workout line.

The big difference was that the 4th place 6/5 layoff horse had a good-looking sheet on TG -- 4 straight 8.25 races -- but looked like @!#$ on Ragozin. (17, 13.5, 11.25, 9.75 top)

For that reason, I tip the race to the Rags.

5th race. NY-Bred grass maidens. Winner a pure angle play. Lone speed posting awful "quit" number in turf debut. Push, though I welcome insight on other placings.

6th race. Winner had roughly similar patterns on both sheets, and repeat of last race produce 5.80/1 winner on both sheets, though TG pattern could have been read, I think, as a little more prone to bounce.

Rags: 6, 15, 9.5. (4.5 top last year)
TG: 3.25, 10.5, 6 (2.5 top last year.)

As for the 2nd place horse, TG had the horse coming off an 02X win. Rags sheet difficult to read. 6/5 fave looked strong on both sets, though an underlay.

Difficult call. I give TG a narrow win based on the textbook 02X pattern win on the 2nd place horse last out.

7th Race. Rags win. 17-1 winner had good line on both, but had faster CD and GP turf #'s. 2nd place horse had terrific looking Rags line, good TG line -- fast dirt figs and good race/bad bad race pattern with a good race coming.

8th. Winner Balto Star off a layoff. Not a great sheet play, tho' TG had last year's Spa win faster than Rags. Push.

9th. Tough call. TG had Orientate far faster last race(-2.75) and called the horse a bet-against in its analysis. Rags had healthy line. 2nd place horse figured to bounce big off last on TG, and probably on Rags.

So, the classic question. Do they bounce a little and run well? Who knows? Verdict is a push, tho' I'll bet very few Rags players took a stab beating Orientate, while some TG money got burned on 4th place Philly shipper, which had an impressive TG line, but looked real bad on the Rags. Push

10th. Wire-to-wire winner had far faster TG turf #'s. Second-place horse @ 10/1 had a far better last-out Mth #, and the 3rd place horse had far faster TG #'s. Triple paid $895. Decisive TG win based on the top 3's numbers, tho' I'm not sure the race was a good sheet play. Lots of playable horses. Still, a TG win.

This, hopefully, will prompt constructive discussion. TGJB, why don't you repost Saratoga 8/11 and let the voters decide.



Subject Written By Posted
Rag vs. Sheets Sunday (1730 Views) The Kid 08/13/2002 10:04PM
Re: Rag vs. Sheets Sunday (842 Views) Michael D. 08/13/2002 10:28PM
Re: Rag vs. Sheets Sunday (906 Views) TGJB 08/14/2002 02:59PM


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