Derby Figures/Rail (1086 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 09, 2007 01:51PM
As far as the rail goes, there were some horses that ran new tops on the rail Friday, but some ran really bad over it too, and my sense of it is that it didn't make a difference. On Derby day it definitely was not any better, except that it was the shortest way home. People always underestimate the effect of ground loss in a big field-- wait until you see the Derby numbers.
High Roller is right-- Ragozin got the Derby wrong by a lot. Even if you just look at their figures, see how it looks if you take off 2 1/2 points. Again, my guess is that they tied it to the next race, which took place an hour later, during which the track was drying out. Nice to know the Derby figures are based partly on what happened in a maiden race. And I haven't even looked at their ground or beaten lengths yet.
The day itself was interesting-- track sealed 1-5, opened after that, Lots of time between races, as usual. Track speed moved around pretty good after they opened it up and it was drying out.
We'll post the Derby later today. As you will see, I gave out 4 new tops, which may be a record for a Derby, though 25% of the field is not that unusual for a spring 3yo race. You will also see that there is no other way to do the race that really makes sense.
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