While their sheets look similar at this time of year, I respectfully have to take the position that Hard Spun's races have more spacing than SNS did last year. Hard Spun has gotten between 24 and 42 days rest between each of his starts since he broke his maiden. The spacing of SNS's races are a bit more irratic. It is also worth noting that SNS always bounces (even as a 4yo) off a new top. Hard Spun has always paired or run a new top.

The study of three year old is a great tool and certainly the percentages (overall) are not in Hard Spun's favor. But by the same token, Street Sense is very beatable and more likely to bounce than Hard Spun.

After looking at FFC's sheet and PPs,I'm not worried about him any longer. He's clearly a sprinter and probably won't get the trip.

King Of The Roxy took a Looooong time to recover from his 2 yo top. He bounced last out and I look for an off race Saturday. You probably won't see him or Curlin until the Super Derby.

Circular Quay's running style is not suited to Pimlico IMO. He could also pair up and still be out of the trifecta.

Curlin is toast.

The 3 yo study, is not absolute though as there have been a few exceptions. Very few, but exceptions none the less. I think Hard Spun will be one of those exceptions on Saturday. I'm no fan of Pino, but he's won a few thousand races at Pimlico. This will be Calvin's first trip to Pimlico. Edge - Pino.

Good luck on Saturday. I won't be wagering.