Jilbab- impossible to judge how good her last race was; a weak field, but a horrible start. she seemed to have energy left at the end of her nice 1M win at Belmont, and she is bred to run far, so I would imagine there is a chance she can run better than a "3". a horse to use in the exotics at 5-1 or so.
Nonsuch Bay- looks a bit slow, and the extra eighth won't make her better. still, if she runs back to a "4", and the favorites don't fire, she has an outside chance. use in the exotics at big odds.
Farda Amiga- fast and bred to run long. can't eliminate. use in the exotics.
Bella Bellucci- the fastest. taking 6/5, however, and a horse doing something for the first time is tough. 33% chance she makes her middle move and wins, 33% chance she makes her middle move and flattens a bit, 33% chance she makes her middle move and stops. can't bet them all, will try to beat her.
Smoke'n Frolick- if the track is a mess, I would move any horse Chavez rides way up. I can't think of any other reason to use this horse.
Allamerican Bertie- great middle distance horse. can she run the extra three sixteenths? i have no idea, but I think the 1 and the 3 are better bets to stretch out. reluctant toss.
You- if she wins a race at a mile and a quarter, I will not be cashing.

The bet: use the 1,2,3 in the exotics, and hope BB does not fire.