According to the analysis, Capsized is "much more likely" to bounce than pair. However, according to my interpretation of the TG figures(the others are dramatically different), Capsize can bounce & still win and/or fill out the exotics, assuming the so called "big bounce" is avoided. Based on research I have seen, the chance of Capsized running within 2 pts of his last race is about 47%, while the chance of a big bounce is around 22%, which means that it is a chance worth taking at 12-1. Ms. Lewis has a 43% win rate at the meet & while she has never won a graded stake, her itm% for the last 9 is 44%. One of the reasons offered in support of a bounce is that Capsized had soundness issues, evidenced by 5 starts in a 2 yr stretch. But Pyrus, the horse Capsized beat last time from the 10 hole, which is said to be a "contender at a price", had 3 races over a two yr period if the same logic is used. Capsized's no. of starts since he returned to the races more than a yr ago is very much in line with the other starters in this race. The Qs, which are always there at 12-1, that I see are the fact that Santos has taken the horse wide each of the 3 times he got the mount & the possibility that the horse moves up just a bit if the turf is off.

BTW, it's probably none of my business, but where is it written that the ROTW has to be a stakes race? Why not pick the race or races which illustrate your theories the best & more importantly, offer the best betting opportunities? The 3rd & 6th tomorrow seem to me like they might fit into the latter category.