Re: ROTW-odds (609 Views)
Posted by:
TGAB (IP Logged)
Date: July 08, 2007 06:48PM
Jerry And I watched the race and we initially thought something was amiss when Vic called the winner at 9-1. We replayed the ESPN feed and Miff is right in terms of the odds sequence so probably everything was on the up and up. Still there were some big punches late, none of which was mine.
Thought Bilo would be wide but Battle Won and Sailors Sunset didn't break that well out and the former took back some and as result was wide himself and didn't have the punch needed at the end.
Without knowing the figure, my guess is Bilo ran a 1 or 2 and Surf Cat, about 2 points better, since he carried 9 pounds more, which means that Surf Cat ran about at his top. Silent Name and Siren Lure didn't run.
Of course we want and trumpet winners when we nail the ROTW. It is a marketing tool but even if we don't cash I think there is always something to be learned in terms of good or even bad reads on patterns and the invariable importance of weight and ground lost or saved.
Most of the old hands here know, acknowledge, and incorprate or dispute these points of emphasis so ROTWs may often seem redundant although the particulars change from week to week. But the ROTWs are good for refreshing old, established principles and for newcomers the ROTWs may provide a new focus, new ideas, a new way to handicap with the analysis and Thoro-Graph data serving as a practicum. And that is the ultimate intention.
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