Tony,


We could debate forever, the horse going in at app65-1 had a theoretical chance of app 1.75%(not 5%) and it just so happens that after research of 200k races, all 65-1 shots actually underperform winning only at app 0.60%(less than one percent). TGI showed only a 2% probability from its sampling.

Aside from that the jock was 1 for 101, the horse was beaten by another horse in the race 17 days ago by 6+ lenghts,was moving slightly UP in class while 4 others were dropping down, was 7 lenghts slower,outside post, and was beaten 10+ and 19+ lengths in two synthetic tries.

Now on that day, route race horses were mainly coming from way back on a very dull energy sapping surface in very slow raw times which is most likely the reason the horse won and not because of third off, moving forward et al.

All I said was that anyone who used the TG data to pick this winner is someone I want to book for the long term, whats the problem? Why doesn't Razzle or Frank produce the guy/guys to come and take my money? No Tony?

As to Del Mar poly, if you like racing that goes 2 to 3 seconds slower than normal, with horse wobbling/swerving from exhaustion to the wire, it's ok.According to the MIG,you want a one run horse on that surface.After three days it looks kinda like Kee Poly not AP poly and very different from synthetic which was somewhat kinder to early gas.It's way too soon to profile that surface though.

Good Luck,
Mike