Friday's 8th at Saratoga (695 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: August 02, 2007 11:05PM
Let's try and see if we can actually get a little handicapping talk on the board. I am looking to build the bankroll in the 8th at Saratoga on Friday, so as to be able to unload on Sunday's Haskell winner (Any Given Saturday).
I hope the morning line is right, but with the job they did over last weekend (screwing up several races), one can't be sure.
However, they have the best horse in the race as the 3rd choice at 5-2.
I will start with Grecian Lover. The horse's top of "1" a year ago, would make him a contender with the rail and a decent trip, but this year the horse has not been close to being in form. The last three figures are not competitive and the horse is moving in the wrong direction. Pass.
I am hoping the undefeated horse, Burmilla, takes some action. Debuts as a 3 year old, races once, then is off 5 months. Races once, then is off a year, albeit does pair up the "4" in that race, despite an "off poorly". I guess one could take it as a positive sign that the horse will actually make two starts in a row instead of another layoff line, but the fillie obviously has physical problems. As often stated on this board, horses with physical problems usually run their best race off the layoff. I don't expect this one to move forward and she might move backward. She might a rail trip if she breaks clean, but I still can't use her.
G City Gal is Pletcher and Velasquez and as such will probably take money. She got down to paired up "1's" last year, which is fast for a 3 year old fillie. However, she hasn't gotten back to that level in her first two starts as a 4 year old. Generally, that is not a great sign, although she did improve a bit in her second start. Pletcher's usually don't seem to improve much during a campaign though, as he is a "layoff" trainer, so at short odds, I won't play this one to move forward.
Indian Flare got down a "1" in a race two back, then bounced badly on a calder track many horses seemed to struggle with. Last time she got down to the "1", she managed to pair up, but she bore out badly in the race and then went off form afterwards, so one could argue the "1" took something out of her. She is a year older and stronger, so she could get back to the "1" today, but I don't see a new top. With an outside post and several speeds inside her, she is not likely to save ground. As the favorite, I would call her an underlay and try to beat her.
Miss MAcy Sue has run four straight races, at different tracks, that likely would win here. The trainer has done a nice job of spacing her races, each almost exactly a month apart, and the filly has responded with consistent, winning efforts. With another month off, I think you can pencil in a "pair up". She is inside of Indian Flare and has a little tactical speed. The rider change to Prado can't hurt and I make her the most likely winner by quite a bit. Don't know if you get the 5-2, but with Pletcher and Frankel both in the race, you might.
Miss Macy Sue to win, then parlay the winnings on Sunday in the Haskell!!