1) What is a move up trainer?

We hear quite frequently from TGJB of what is apparently a "classic" move up
scenario, the Frankel barn in 2001, where almost all of the stock in the barn
moved forward during a certain time frame. Have I been wrong to believe that
most "move up" scenarios involve trainers working with stock which has been
acquired from or claimed from other trainers?

The TG/ form on Creole Beat in Saratoga's 7th race Friday got me thinking of
move up trainers. On May 7, Scott Lake claimed CB from Michael Zeisler, a high
percentage trainer who handles the Farish family's second string. Prior to Lake
claiming CB, CB's TG#s were (rounding) 20, 14, 16, 20, 17, 10 and 12 (May 7,
the day CB was claimed at Delaware). Lake gives CB 10 weeks rest, and CB
returns at Delaware and posts a TG 5. (In his Saratoga race Friday, CB was
spent in a speed duel with Trombetta trained Georgian, who ran a game race from
the rail). Was CB "moved up"? Was the move up more pronounced because CB was
taken from a high percentage barn?

Could somebody at TG create a profile of the "move up" trainer and share it
with posters on the board? Is it a term which is thrown around too loosely? I do
not see a specific discussion of "move ups" in the Archives.


2) Trainer Profiles-- Run Based v TG Figure Based.

Looking again at Creole Beat's TG, I note a disparity, if you will, in Scott
Lake's profile. In his "Overall" category, SL shows a win percentage of 23%,
yet his runners have only posted tops 10% of the time. Other categiories:
last 90 days (19% win, 12% tops); last race under 11 days (27%/13%); last race
11-29 days (24%/10%); last race 30- 89 days (23%/9%); last race 90+ days
(18%/6%); dirt (24%/10%); sprints (25%/11%).

Statistical anomaly? The samples are rather large in this case.

Disregarding intangibles (almost impossible in the case of the oft suspended
Lake) is this disparity evidence of a trainer who is super efficient at
spotting his horses, such that he is able to strike at a high percentage while
his runners are rarely posting tops?

Going back to question 1,can Lake truly be considered a move up trainer if
his "Overall" TG based stat shows 6831 starts, with only 10% of his runners
posting tops, with another 24% pairing?

3) "Potent" Patterns.

I pose this question periodically. I believe Thoro- patterns were added to
the mix in 2004; TGAB, in response to a question I posed, once disclosed that
there were well in excess of 24,000 distinct patterns (did I get that correct
Alan?). Has there ever been any thought given to identifying those Thoro -
patterns which have the greatest win percentage? If this data has been
assembled by TG's crack staff, is it something which only "Thoro- whales" have
been given access to? If this data has indeed been assembled, has there been
any thought given to mass marketing it, allowing "Thoro- plankton" such as
myself and others to pay for and benefit from it?