I was in the same position as TGJB.

In terms of analyzing this horse's sheet, here is my view for what it is worth.

The two most recent races were a pretty good sign...the horse was likely to move forward off them (i would give a backward move a 20% chance and a pair up a 20% chance which gives him a 60% chance of a forward move). He had run generally off races since the big efforts 18 months earlier. The last two races were the first non-off races since the two big efforts. The problem is that if he moved forward only one or two points, that might not have been good enough with the figures other horses could run plus taking into consideration weight and trip factors. It certainly would put him with the pack but not at the top.

So how to decide whether he would make a small move or a big move?

The conundrum was that he had run that '2' early in his three year old year. If he could come back to that '2' (or close) you had to be very wary and use him. So, you need to assess the chances of him coming back to the "2"....the problem with the '2' is that it was the only figure he had run like that, it was run on a track very rarely used for racing (it could have been a horse for course type thing), it was run in Florida in the winter (and today's race was in New York in the Summer), and he had given a tip off (5 point forward move) before running it (which he did not give today) On balance, while I thought there was a good chance of the horse moving forward to mid-pack...I thought the chances of coming back or close to the '2' while existing where a lot less likely than the likelihood of the short forward move to mid-pack status.

His price was nice however.

In the end, he was my fifth horse. In the wagers I went 5 deep, I had him. In the wagers I went 4 deep, I did not have him. While one poster complained about the price of his pick three, the pick four did have a nice price and was pretty hittable with three favorites coming in the other races plus this horse.

The race in question was an extremely challenging race...while I made him fifth on my list of horses to use, he was not a lot ahead of horses even deeper (and, if his price was not generous, he would have been lower ranking).

Anyway, this is just one guy's opinion on how to handicap that race...take it for what it is worth...but I would not sweat too much about missing him in that in races that are so wide open, there are a tons of ways to bet them right and still miss them.