Re: ROTW (588 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: September 17, 2007 04:02AM
The following is not a complaint, but it looks to me like enough people got down to influence the odds. I would have expected Drysdale's and Frankel's horses to take a lot more money than they did, and I would have expected that Super to pay more than it did in a 14 horse field.
Woodbine has a bizarre takeout structure. Has anybody seen (not counting special promotions) a case where the regular takeout from the trifecta pool(28.3% at WOX) is more than the regular takeout from the superfecta pool (26.3% at WOX)? This makes zero sense to me since there will always be far more super combinations that trifecta combinations.
If the Super in question had been hosted under Churchill's takeout rules (19% take on Supers) instead of Woodbine's (26.3% take on Supers), the Super would have paid almost $1200 instead of the $937 it did pay. This shows you the power of the take (almost rivals compounding interest, huh?).
Even if the super had paid the $1200 under a more gentle take out regime, that still seems low to me compared to what I would have expected prior to seeing how the crowd bet the race which brings us back to the splendid ROTW analysis. Kudos to Thorograph....I cannot imagine hammering a race more soundly.
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