Barry,

I have weighed in on this issue, and up to now, expressed a sincere appreciation for both the difficulty of making numbers for the turf as you stated, AND how well it is done here. In the race you criticize, Shakespeare's win in CAN, Jerry's summary was that the horse was the likely winner. In my opinion that is in fact not a "favorite" pick and there the story only starts. The horse is going to get bet, no matter what, because as you say, his record draws money. But to leave him on top, around one turn, and given that the traffic was considerable, was in fact a professional statement. Many public consultants would have dismissed him as you have, simply BECAUSE he was obvious, but while OBVIOUS, it wasn't easy at the distance and knowing they really want the BC, to stay with him. The commentary about Kip Deville was insightful, and pointed me to believing he would throw a big number, and Galantas was heavily suggested when a ML of 30/1, something I would never do on my own, as I don't play gimmicks very often.

As other posts have mentioned and matching my experience, solid looking mid range horses were eliminated for reasons that are verifiable if you saw the races, Art Master, Becrux, for instance. I don't think you could argue you got a pretty good trip in CA, and failed. So did Art Master.

If what you might mean when you say "from thin air" implies the use of judgement, you would be right. That's one of the things people pay consultants for. I am sure that many people have made use, and profitably, or your own. To not notice or acknowledge Jerry's work on the turf seems almost petty, and I know that can't be true, so there must be something I don't understand here.
skip

Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Congratulations to one and all, especially Jerry
> and to those who cashed.
>
> I don't know how anybody could come up with the
> winner, considering that he's already lost at
> least one race in his life.
>
> Amazing!
>
> Houdini is quaking in his grave, the poor bastard.