Re: I want the win pool (356 Views)
Posted by:
PapaChach (IP Logged)
Date: September 29, 2007 01:09PM
BEL 7 - Symphony of Psalms - new top off the long layoff, backed up to secondary top off short rest when tried @ 9f for 1st time, been given 6 weeks off since, Frankel's good w/30-89 days off, going well L90 days, and en fuego last few days, good works, 2-2 over BEL Widener. Rewrite progressed well this year, obvious threat; hasn't raced in two months and shows one 3f breeze since, puzzling. Factual Contender is consistent and fast enough; may face too much pace pressure from Tishmeister and/or Lauren's Tizzy. Jesse's Justice sports good record but is slower than several these on TG, so will bet against @ short price.
BEL 8 - Wait A While looks tough, obvious, and a short price. Was very impressed w/the way Royal Highness ran down Irridescence in Beverly D. Hard to go past these two. Might give My Typhoon another chance, at least to crack the gimmicks, just on contrarian logic; guessing she'll go at least a couple notches higher than her 4-1 m.l. off the fiasco last out, and though she probably doesn't want this far, was 1.5 L behind @ stretch call going 11f in BC last year, and she sports a long string of figs that put her right in this. Al. Tango closed fast off slow pace in last and would consider at a big price; have hunch they're going to bet her in here.
BEL 9 - Though he looks a touch slower on TG than some of the others here I can't resist Kavafi and his 6-2-1 record in 13 starts @ a mile, gets Lasix, should get pace to run at. There was a discussion on this board recently about gut feeling, etc., thinking of that as I try to figure out just why Palace Episode scares me, saw the last race in person and for some reason like the way he looked, flashed talent as a juvenile, obviously got hurt; just rounding back into form? Trippi's Storm the other must use. Would consider throwing Woodlander in 3rd/4th on the off chance that he runs back to his occasional mildly competitive # w/the aid of a pace battle - surprised to see him fire a best-of-19 5f work on 9/16.
BEL 10 - Elusive Fox has speed and a competitive fig in this field of chronic losers, gets in light. Body Blows's opening # puts him on the fringes, and he's stuck outside, but in a field loaded w/1-fer pigs, have to consider a horse who won 1st out while overcoming trouble. The rail horse is a threat off last two #s but would use him in gimmicks, not on top, off 1-13 record.
SA 10th - Wing Forward - the old new face in a lousy field of regulars theory, working well, DRF tr. stats show he's good w/new stock and off layoffs, and, though the sample size is so small as to be probably meaningless, he is 3 for 5 adding Lasix. Would be happy w/ 1/2 the 12-1 ML.
Happy wagering, everyone.