TGJB -

I've read it and think it's a very interesting theory. I'm just not sure it's correct. Belmont is just one track. We discussed this in a thread a couple years ago. That's one reason why I called Joe King. I asked him if the tracks are considerably slower now than 30 years ago. He told me no. I said I heard that when Secretariat won the Belmont there was a 2 3/4 inch cushion. He told me no way. So are you trying to say he is out of it and is not a good source?

I agree it is logical that horses should be getting faster. We have been selectively breeding a certain type for 20 years at least. Sprinter milers to be specific. So we should be getting faster horses up to a mile and slower horses from 9-12 furlongs. That's probably what we are getting. But to say that Secretariat would be a nice allowance horse now and that you couldn't find him in today's Triple Crown races is taking a (now disputed) data point about cushion depth and extrapolating it way too far in my opinion. The best way to resolve this is to study grass racing. When we discussed this you dismissed that because of pace but that should be a constant. I don' think we've changed the way we ride grass horses. And if you look at it observationally it does seem that grass sprints are getting faster and the routes are not. I did look at some major races like the Yellow Ribbon that have been run for decades and the times were faster in the seventies.

Also do you believe tracks are getting slower and horses are getting faster each year or did this level off at some point? It seems that fig inflation has accelerated the past few years.

BB