HP WROTE:

"So Jerry, what is your opinion on the ground loss v. momentum issue? Some posters seem to think that if a jockey can maintain a horse's momentum it may be worth the ground lost doing so. Just looking at the chart, it looks to me like the ground loss, assuming say, two paths (and up) lost on the turn, is going to be too much to overcome most of the time even if you're riding a freight train. HP"

HP,

So Bill James, for years you have been leaving stolen bases out of your model. Do you think you are stupid, or do you think you have been doing the right thing? On your rock of an answer I will build my church.

Seriously, JB's reply, part of which he stole from me after I stole it from him after he stole it from Heinlen, was exemplary. This can't be quantified, and he's right not to try. And trip handicapping is NOT incompatible with TG. They get along beautifully.

When a rider moves his horse away from the rail, as almost every rider does in almost every race, he is expressing this opinion: "At this point, something else is a higher priority than saving ground." Almost any rider can get almost any horse to the rail before the turn. The rider may have to use his stick out of the gate, or strangle the horse and drop back to last, but it can be done. Yet races are not run single-file to the stretch. Smart riders like Cordero, Pincay, and Bailey choose to lose ground over strangling their horses early. Why?

In his second book, William Quirin studied 1705 two-horse speed duels. He found that the horse on the outside won more races than the horse on the inside.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.