Mark Pitzele wrote:
>
> If a horse runs a much higher figure on dirt coming out of a
> turf race, is the chance he will bounce in the next any more
> or less likey?
>
> If a horse has paired up a figure once, is he likely to do it
> again, even if the move from the previous figure was
> substantial?
>
> Guess the BC horse this pertaisn to.:)
>
> Thanks for the information.

Q1--In the abstract, dirt is a more taxing surface than grass. A big new top on dirt is more likely to induce a bounce, a reaction, than a big new top on turf. The track 2 races back may have some significance but probably no more so than other factors--prior race history, time between races, trainer strengths or weaknesses, pedigree,etc.

Q2--When you say pairs, I'm assuming you mean pairs of tops. Pairs, especially in juvenile and young 3yo racers, are signs of strength. The youngsters are still growing and the pair signifies that the respective performance level did not adversely affect them. And given that, the probability of further improvement is very high. Indeed if the youngster didn't improve after a pair, it would be a major disappointment. But it doesn't follow that because the horse was able to pair at one level, it will be able to pair at a substantially faster level.



TGAB