phil,
that race is a real question mark. the ragozin folks feel he regressed in that race; you can see their euro numbers for free on their web site. when i originally looked at the race i too thought he regressed. i had his best number coming in the race before that (9/7 Irish Champion Stakes) at a 2+, previously he had also worked down to a 2+ at Epsom on June 8th. anyway i rated his race about a 5" -- which is a regression from my point of view as well. then i viewed the video (Santa Anita's site has breeder's cup videos you can view for free) and I thought that race might not be such a regression after all, maybe another 2+ or a 3- at the worst. the horse that beat him has a much quicker turn of foot and he just got the jump on him in a race shorter than Hawk Wing really wants to run anyway, the race was over before hawk Wing got going -- he's a real stayer, solid late running type, but not too quick -- that race might even set him up better for the classic building some more speed into him and he has 1st lasix too. my biggest concern with him is that the track might come up sloppy and he's not quite as fast as the top american horses, and certainly thusfar lacking in the early speed department -- i think he's a contender, but there are a lot of variables at this point. my numbers on him are as follows 2 year old 13+ 9" 6+ 4" three year old 3+ 2+ 4"h? 2+ 5" (the race in question). i'm sure he'll run his best race and he loves 1 1/4 yet the questions remain -- hope this helps