Not much to add, as I agree with the assessment that Kafwain's chances of winning are close to 50%. The items I found most interesting were that Logician was purchased at a 2yr old in training sale for $520k after selling for $150k as a yrling, and that this is the 1st time in many yrs that Dollase, an excellent trainer, is running one back on 10 days rest. Also, while Hennessy's last does represent a bigger forward move, you could make the case that it might have had something to do with the addition of blinkers, and 1/2 Werblin's 3.25 at 2 and 5 at a route might be seen as addditional evidence if you're of the view that another forward move is in the offing. Finally, for what it's worth, Derby1592 & I independently reached the conclusion that Be Blessed in the 3rd at Haw has a much higher percentage chance of running a winning or competitive number than his 15-1 ML odds would suggest.