Of the three races that you mention, the Malibu is the only one I have any opinion on. I think My Cousin Matt is the obvious horse to beat. He is the fastest and most of the other contenders are probably using this as a prep and would prefer longer distances. In fact, I was surprised Matt's last fig was not faster. He beat Deer Run by 8 in his last and Deer Run had run about 10 straight 1.5s (a figure maker's dream). However, at 5/2 in the morning line, Matt is no value.

I will probably pass the race but I think USS Tinosa looks like the one possible value play. He is as fast as any of the others, gets in light, and Hollendorfer is very good off the bench and has given the horse a very nice progressive work tab leading up to this race. The Malibu is clearly a prep for the horse but it is a Graded Stakes race and he may be pretty cranked up for it and will likely be flying at the end. He also ran his top at SA last winter and he also may be completely overlooked in the betting.


Good luck.

Chris