I have to go along with the ROTW analysis this time. This clearly looks like a 2-horse race to me.

Bonapaw is the horse to beat and will not be hooking up with horses like Congaree and Orientate in this race. When he can press or set a reasonable pace he is very tough to beat. He also does seem to be cycling back to a good race and he loves FG. However, he may be a race away from a top effort.

Talknow is clearly the value play. 10-1 seems very generous to me if it holds up. At the weights, he has a decent shot to beat Bonapaw. He also seems to be cycling back to a good race. He has always been heavily raced and his fall freshening was his first break ever and had to do him some good. His trainer always races them into shape (take a look at his terrible layoff and 2nd off layoff stats) and this will be his third race after the freshening. Ideally, I would like to wait about a month to play him but all his other tops have come on short rest and he looks to be sitting on a big race. He has plenty of speed but can also layoff the pace and he may be sitting in the garden spot when they turn for home. If Bonapaw runs anything less than his best, Talknow is liable to pull the upset.

A win bet on Talknow along with an exacta box with Bonapaw looks like the obvious play.

Regarding Mountain General. I think the big effort two back took its toll and he will need something close to that to beat Bonapaw and Talknow and I don't think he will deliver it tomorrow. He looks to be a good bet against.

The rest seem too slow to do much damage unless Cojet jumps way up or Early Flyer is ready to fire off the bench. Those two are the most likely to fill out the trifecta.

Good luck to all.

Chris