Okay, Friedman came back with a response, which judging from the time it took to post (and since he didn't respond to 90% of what I said) he probably wrote before I even posted mine. On the specifics of second off a layoff, as used in our profiles it means a race within 30 days of a race after a layoff of 90 days or more, and does not include second out lifetime. And, of course, he is using those large averaging methods again.

Which brings up an interesting point. The point that Friedman makes about each category really being a group of categories within it which have both similarities and differences is correct. Which is why, as we have said before, it is important to know how to use the profiles properly-- to place them in context. We do it that way for a variety of reasons-- space limitations, sample size, etc.. Ultimately they are meant to be used as guides, not hard figures.

But here's the interesting part. Ragozin does the same thing (mix unrelated data and average it) to create his figures, and they are sold as "objective" truth, not as guides that should be placed in context. For those who are new here, I went into this in detail in several earlier posts that can be found in our archives-- notably "Now that I have your attention", 11/14/01, but also "Changing Track Speeds", 11/17/01, "Split variants, Bruno's take", 1/03/02, and "Figure Methodology II", 6/10/02.

Most interesting of all is Friedman's change of tactics, presumably as a result of their finally starting to sell on-line. If he really does come out to play on a regular basis rather than hide and censor I think you guys are going to be kept entertained for a while, even if it does end up taking another 2 hours a day out of my life.

Jes' don't throw me in the briar patch.

Meanwhile, I know for a fact that there are guys out there who know a whole lot more than me or Friedman about trainer patterns (Chris, Jon), as well as dwarves and assorted others who may as well. Comments?



TGJB