No way you can make an accurate figure for Chilukki the way it was described. There are so few non bullring tracks that even run it and for the ones that do there is no fixed relationship between tracks re gate placement for the 4 1/2 f races and the 6 furlong races. Couple that with the fact that NO other track in the country has Keeneland's 8 1/2 furlong configuration, with a backstretch that runs downhill to boot.

To tie it to "historical relationships" is even a bigger farce. What historical relationships, the relationship between 4 1/2 f sprints and 6 f sprints on days when the track has been sealed and unsealed? How many data points that give you, a handful maybe. Of course all that assumes that on the other days the track was sealed/unsealed it received an amount of rain exactly equal to the moisture content the day Chilliki ran, and dried out at exactly the same rate.

And re Charlie Varricks "I don't know how the numbers are made. I don't care, any more than I care about the processes used in making any number of consumer products I use daily." I for one like to know the thought process behind the numbers. Helps to understand when a figure is solid and when some guy is taking a WAG (wild assed guess) at it just so he can say he gave the race a number. And if they came up with Chilluki's number the way they said they did then it was just that, a WAG. Caveat Emptor