With only one route race and a 6-week break heading into the Derby I would make Lion Tamer a complete toss in the Derby regardless of how he does in his final prep.

Winning off such preparation would be without precedent and would be a training marvel and require a brilliant performance by a brilliant race horse.

I agree with TGJB that spacing races probably helps a horse long term but you have to have a solid foundation and be dead fit to win the Derby.

The bottom line is that you almost have to sacrifice some long term interest to win the Derby. It is not quite as bad as what you now have to do to win a major fall 2yo stakes race but it's pretty darn close.

Chris