I do not mean this in a hostile way, but in this very message, TGJB, you acknowledge the "trickiness" of making accurate figures, suggesting EM could have easily have run 2 pnts faster. And this was on the best day of racing for this particular track.

In fact, it seems that groups of horses can in fact run unpredictably enough or perhaps in sufficiently confusing ways, figurewise, so that you are unable to produce figures with which you have sufficient faith.

As the route varient got slower, I would speculate that the "very tricky" conditions you encountered could produce inaccurate figure for any number of the route races.