Very good question, but one I really can't answer for you because we are in uncharted territory. I wrote comments for the horses in this week's Derby future pool that will be sold with the data, and one of the points I made is that in the last two years we have had horses win the Derby after running big numbers in March, which (Thunder Gulch aside) used not to happen-- they would tail off if they peaked that soon. War Emblem paired after the jump, before the Derby, and Monarchos bounced in the Wood but snapped back. It's too soon to declare this a trend, but horses are clearly getting better, both in terms of how fast they run and how they handle big efforts, and we are all going to have to take that into account when handicapping.

The Derby Futures package will include sheets on the fillies for the Oaks, sheets and my comments on the 23 Derby horses, and sheets for the winners of the Derbies since 1982.



TGJB