The ROTW really looks like a classic condition play to me. For all the reasons in my previous post regarding MWC I think he has a good chance to jump to a winning level.

All the faster favorites have questionable lines and/or are very likely to lose significant ground:

- Kafwain: Much the fastest but could be EOL and is likely to lose ground.

- Buddy Gil: Could react to paired big jump (although the Mullins factor is in play)

- Domestic Dispute: Has a nice line but he is likely to lose a lot of ground (see my previous post)

- ATS: Looks to have been rushed to the Derby. May have another good race left in him but he also may be ready to X. The running style will also play against him at SA as he is likely to lose ground and/or have traffic problems.

- Logician: Could react to big jump in last.

Other than MWC, only Ocean Terrace has a strong line going in and he is slightly slower than MWC and much less explosive IMO (for the reasons I brought up in the other post).

So I think MWC is the obvious key at anything near the morning line (and with the hype around ATS and the Baffert Factor with Kafwain and DD and the recent victories for OT and BG, 10/1 is not out of the question for MWC). One of the other faster horses is likely to run back to its top but as long as it is not Kafwain then MWC can win this with a good trip and a 3-4 point jump. I seldom play a horse to make that sort of a move but I very seldom find one that is as likely to jump as this one.

As for the Derby - All the Drysdale final-Derby-prep-jumpers regressed after their jumps(FuPeg only slightly) so I don't see MWC as the Derby winner even if he runs big on Saturday. I agree with TGJB that DD looks like the best Derby prospect in here assuming he moves forward, which he could do and still lose on Saturday due to ground loss. Since I already have a future book play on him, I would like to see him head into the Derby off a good effort because Empire Maker is going to be tough be beat on the first Saturday in May.

Good luck to everyone.

Chris